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CQM forecasts illustrate the downward trend of real GDP in 2024Q1, which is lowered to 0.6% growth. However, economic growth rate will not be negative because real final sales and domestic final sales started to increase since the middle of February. Both CQM and PCA forecasts show that inflation is gradually rising in 2024Q1. In order to find out which is more serious, slowing economy or rising inflation, the Fed will wait for February exports and imports and March CPI and PPI. Therefore, the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the FOMC meeting on March 20.
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