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LAST UPDATE:10/21/2021
CQM 20211022 CQM 20211022

This week's CQM/PCA is the last forecast for Advance 2021Q3 GDP. Since IP dropped 1.3% in September and August IP was revised from 0.4% to -0.1% (graph 2.1a), PCA revised real GDP growth from 3.04% to 1.49. CQM/PCA finally forecast economic growth rate to be about 1.5% in 2021Q3 and inflation over 6%. Uncertainties are September exports /imports and business inventories. BEA assumes them based on its internal information while CQM estimate them by ARIMA. This time, September construction spending becomes one of uncertainties due to Hurricane Ida. As CQM/PCA have warned before, monetary policy will be very difficult from now on.

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