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LAST UPDATE:2/17/2024
CQM 20240216 CQM 20240216

A large decline in retail sales in January is a major factor for the downward revision of economic growth on both the expenditure and income sides. Real PCE was adjusted from 1.88% to -0.18% in 2024Q1 due to the January retail sales and CPI.  Nonfarm proprietors’ income and corporate profits were revised down by $10.2 billion and $57.9 billion respectively in 2024Q1, causing a large decline in nominal GDP on the income side.  Furthermore, as GDP price deflator was revised up from 2.12% to 2.59%, economic growth on the income side was adjusted from 0.40% to -1.21%. Recession risks have become apparent in 2024Q1.

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