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LAST UPDATE:5/28/2022
CQM: 20220527 CQM: 20220527

When BEA released Preliminary 2022Q1 GDP, statistical discrepancy in 2021Q4 was calculated to be -$851.5 billion, 3.5% of nominal GDP. Eight hundred fifty billion is about the same as GDP in Switzerland and Taiwan. Real GDP is -1.5% in 2022Q1 while Real GDI is 2.1%. The difference of economic growth between both the expenditure and income sides is 3.6%. Although CQM revised upward economic growth on both the expenditure and income sides, PCA adjusted downward economic growth from -0.12% to -1.46% in 2022Q2. This is because real money supply fell 0.7% in April, much larger than the ARIMA forecast of -0.1%. CPI, international trade, and stock prices in May play important roles in achieving more accurate economic growth in 2022Q2.


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