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LAST UPDATE:4/19/2024
CQM 20240419 CQM 20240419

CQM illustrates a downward trend of real GDP since early January and forecasts about 1.0% economic growth in 2024Q1. Inflation shows an upward trend since early January. The downward trend of real GDP and an upward trend of inflation have created a difficult situation for the Fed to change monetary policy. PCA forecast of real GDP always exceeded the CQM forecast in 2024Q1. This implies overvaluation of stock prices in 2024Q1. PCA forecast using all kinds of economic indicators on the expenditure, income and financial sides tends to lie between the CQM forecasts of real GDP on both the expenditure and income sides. Based on simulation of S&P500 and economic growth, if real GDP did not grow more than 2.0%, stock prices will be corrected in 2024Q2.

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